Central Banker of the Year 2025

Jerome Powell, US

After four years of upheaval the US economy seems on course for a soft landing. Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve’s chair, can take much of the credit.

Many observers believe the Fed, under Powell’s leadership, has significantly increased the odds of a return to economic normality, based on low inflation, low unemployment and solid economic growth.

Powell laid out his assessment on why inflation had surged and how it has come down seemingly painlessly in a speech in late August at the closely-watched gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole.

He attributed the post-pandemic rise in inflation to “an extraordinary collision between overheated and temporarily distorted demand and constrained supply”. In turn, he said disinflation has come as a result of the dissipation of those shocks, monetary policy moderating demand and well-anchored inflation expectations.

The last factor has been particularly important, Powell said. Many observers agree that the Fed has kept inflation expectations anchored by showing it was willing to act aggressively as needed. 

Tightening interest rates have also helped reduce demand in certain sectors, such as construction, which has kept inflationary pressures in check as the impact of fiscal stimulus and supply shocks faded.

The Banker’s award for Central Banker of the Year recognises Powell’s contribution to averting a recession in the US and taming inflation, recognising the effectiveness of the Fed’s communication with markets, which was instrumental in setting inflation expectations.

Perhaps the ultimate accolade for Powell came in December, when president-elect Donald Trump signalled that — unlike with other high-profile regulatory figures — he won’t seek to remove Powell from his post before his term expires in May 2026.

Since winning the US election in November, concern has risen across Wall Street and Washington that Trump would threaten the independence of the Fed, which is considered key to the stability of the US economy and, by extension, the global economy and financial markets.

During the electoral campaign, Trump seemed to suggest he would restart his attacks on the Fed, frequently heard during his first term, when he branded Powell as an “enemy” for resisting his then calls for lower interest rates.

Powell has consistently emphasised the importance of the Fed’s independence throughout his tenure, which began in 2018. After Trump’s election, Powell said he wasn’t concerned about the Fed’s independence during a second Trump term because it is protected by “the law of the land”.

The president-elect’s milder rhetoric can be seen as an early win for Powell, amid what may be a rocky relationship between two of the most powerful people in the world.

To be sure, the likely return to normality does not mean that economic conditions in the US are idyllic. Many workers’ wages will likely not keep up with inflation. Prices will keep on rising, albeit more gradually, but they are unlikely to revert to levels seen before the Covid-19 pandemic any time soon. 

Moreover, the bumpy journey of the nearly five years since the beginning of the pandemic has not unfolded without criticisms of the Fed and its chair.

In 2020 the central bank launched an unprecedented series of actions to counter the impact on financial markets of the pandemic, involving a dramatic expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, with the introduction of new tools, including the direct purchase of corporate bonds and a direct lending programme.

The vast quantitative easing programme contributed to sky-high asset valuations last seen at the peaks of previous stock market bubbles.

Powell resisted some economists’ calls to act more swiftly and forcefully when US inflation began to unexpectedly trend upwards in the second half of 2021, claiming that the Fed’s reaction was slow by historical standards.

In 2024, Trump once again warned the Fed about its interest rate decisions, this time telling the monetary institution, in July, it should not cut rates before the November presidential election — a call that went unheeded with the half-point cut in September, followed by a quarter-point cut in the days after the vote. By contrast, some economists and Democratic lawmakers accused the Fed of moving too slowly, increasing the risk of the US economy falling into recession.

A further quarter-point cut was a near certainty as The Banker went to press in mid-December, meaning that rates will have ended the year one percentage point lower than at the beginning of September. 

Powell has signalled that the Fed could move more slowly in reducing borrowing costs next year, with the economy looking in better shape than it did in September when the first cut came.

Africa

Hassan Abdulla, Egypt

Hassan Abdulla took the reins at the Central Bank of Egypt in August 2022, a particularly perilous time for the north African economy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier in the year had prompted an exodus of hot money from Egypt, draining foreign exchange reserves, causing inflation to spike and leaving the CBE little choice but to devalue the pound several times. 

Abdulla is the recipient of The Banker’s Central Banker of the Year award for Africa in recognition of his role in restoring a measure of stability to Egypt’s economy in early March 2024, following the $35bn investment in the country’s Ras al-Hekma project by Abu Dhabi.

The influx of funds allowed the CBE to move the pound to a more flexible exchange rate later in the month, thereby enabling the country to unlock further funding from the IMF. 

Analysts noted that communications from the central bank around the float — and the decision to raise interest rates to an unprecedented high of 27.25 per cent — were more transparent than usual, with the bank holding a press conference following the devaluation and rates decision. 

The floating of the pound and the tightened monetary environment has paid dividends already: inflation remains elevated but dropped more than expected to 25.5 per cent in November, its lowest level in nearly two years. 

Meanwhile, the hot money that flowed out of the country in 2022 has begun to return since March, restoring the country’s foreign currency buffers to $46.9bn at the end of October, their highest level to date. Fitch Ratings meanwhile upgraded Egypt’s credit rating to B from B- in November, the country’s first upgrade for five years. 

Under Abdulla’s guidance, the CBE in September also brought forward the much-anticipated IPO of United Bank, 99.9 per cent owned by the central bank, one of three Egypt lenders earmarked for privatisation as part of the country’s IMF programme. The November-December share sale, originally slated to occur in early 2025, raised E£4.57bn ($94mn) through the sale of 330mn shares, representing 30 per cent of the bank’s capital. 

Asia-Pacific

Chia Der Jiun, Singapore

Since taking on the role of managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore in September 2023, Chia Der Jiun has built on the country’s solid foundations of innovation and banking stability. 

Chia was previously permanent secretary for development at the ministry of manpower, having previously spent 18 years at the MAS. During his tenure at the regulator, he worked on liberalising Singapore’s banking sector, led a review of the asset allocation of the Official Foreign Reserves, and helped with the transformation of the MAS’s technology architecture and corporate functions.

Since taking on the central bank governor position, Singapore’s economy is forecast to reach its growth target of 3.5 per cent in 2024, bringing the country’s economy back up to pre-Covid-19 levels of growth. Inflation is also falling, standing at 1.4 per cent in October 2024, a fall on the previous month’s 2 per cent, and the lowest level since March 2021. 

Chia Der Jiun © Bloomberg

Continuing the MAS’s established theme of innovation, Chia has outlined plans for the MAS to explore the use of asset tokenisation to reduce duplication, cut costs and increase the speed of financial settlements. He has also stated that it is not too early to start looking to quantum technology, but emphasised the importance of ensuring security in any developments in the field. 

Additionally, the MAS has established the Global Finance and Technology Network, with the intention of cementing Singapore’s place as a leading location for banking and fintech innovation, by working across both the public and private sectors. The Cyber and Technology Resilience Experts Panel of banking experts was also created in 2024, with the goal of enhancing the financial sector’s resilience against cyber threats and technology disruptions.

Developments are not limited to banking, with Chia launching the Singapore Sustainable Finance Association, which will oversee the sustainable finance sector. Composed of representatives from the banking and insurance sector, academics, and NGOs, the aim is to develop industry best practice across areas including carbon credits, transition finance, blended finance and taxonomy.

Europe

Aleš Michl, Czech Republic

When Aleš Michl became governor of the Czech National Bank in the summer of 2022, inflation in the eastern European country was at 18 per cent. In his first speech to the public, he pledged to bring the figure down to the CNB’s target of 2 per cent within two years. 

He kept his promise — by February 2024, inflation had indeed dropped to the target. Winning The Banker’s Central Banker of the Year for Europe is in recognition of this achievement.

Michl explained his success in meeting his target as stemming primarily from two policies: keeping interest rates high for longer, and betting that a strong koruna would do part of the job.

Upon taking on the role, he inherited a key interest rate of 7 per cent, a level he deemed already sufficiently high. Crucially, he took the view that inflation in the Czech Republic was predominantly imported; in a small open economy, he reasoned, a stronger currency would help lower the prices of imports, while high interest rates alone couldn’t succeed in curbing inflation. 

“An interest rate of 7 per cent and the strongest koruna in history have together resulted in the tightest monetary conditions in 20 years. That was when monetary policy had its full effect,” he said in July at a Bank for International Settlements meeting of central bankers in London.

The stronger koruna was the result of market dynamics, fuelled by investors’ trust in the CNB’s policies, he noted.

In November, the IMF attributed reaching the 2 per cent target and keeping it close to it over the summer to “lower commodity prices, restrictive monetary policy and economic slack”.

Inflation has drifted higher in recent months, mainly reflecting volatile food prices, the fund added, with core inflation remaining above the target due to sticky services price growth and recovery in real wages.

Since taking over as governor, Michl communicated extensively to explain the CNB’s policies not only to markets but also to the general public. He gave many television interviews, wrote numerous papers and heavily used social media.

While Poland and Hungary cut borrowing costs fro September and October 2023 as inflation retreated, the CNB waited until December of that year for its first reduction of just 25 basis points.

A series of cuts has followed, bringing the key rate to 4 per cent by the end of 2024.

Middle East

Ayman Al-Sayari, Saudi Arabia

Ayman Al-Sayari was appointed as governor of the Saudi Central Bank (Sama) in February 2023, after serving as the bank’s deputy governor since 2019. He is the recipient of The Banker’s Central Banker of the Year award for 2025 in recognition of his stewardship of the Saudi banking sector during a time of economic rebalancing.

Profitability among the largest lenders remains strong even as the country’s economic growth slows due to lower oil revenues. Return on equity at the country’s 10 largest listed banks rose to 17.4 per cent for the third quarter of 2024, compared with 16.4 per cent for the same quarter in 2023, according to data compiled by Alvarez & Marsal. 

In the country’s most recent Article IV consultation with the IMF, concluded in July, the fund noted that the country’s banking sector — the largest in the Middle East — remains on a strong footing. 

“Stress tests performed by the Financial Sector Assessment Program show that banks as well as non-financial corporates are resilient to shocks, even under severe adverse scenarios,” the fund said, while noting that credit growth continues to surpass that of deposits, with loan growth now dominated by corporate lending.

Inflation remains under control in the country, standing at just 2 per cent in November, with Sama’s interest rate policy moving in line with that of the US Federal Reserve due to the riyal’s peg to the dollar. 

One of the main highlights for Sama in 2024 was the launch in August of NQD, a government banking services platform enabling government entities to conduct financial transactions through a secure digital platform. The NQD platform offers electronic banking services that support government financial transactions, improve user experience, and enhance efficiency and productivity in financial transactions by reducing the time required to complete government banking procedures.

After publishing a comprehensive open banking framework in 2022, Sama in September 2024 announced the issuance of its second release focused on the provision of payment initiation service, building on previous guidance covering account information services.  

In December, Sama announced the launch of Samsung Pay via the country’s “mada” national payments system, with Apple Pay and Google Pay already in place in the country for several years.